Precipitation forecasts for one up to several days are of high socioeconomic importance throughout the tropics, regarding both the occurrence as well as the amount of precipitation. However, forecasts based on numerical weather prediction models and …
Decades of meteorological research have produced a plethora of sophisticated conceptual models for midlatitude weather systems such as the Norwegian cyclone or the conveyor-belt models. For tropical climates, such models are generally more scattered. …
Equatorial waves can couple with deep convection and thus modulate rainfall on the synoptic timescale throughout the tropics. Until now, however, no comparative study of the influence of all the different wave types on precipitation has been …
Precipitation forecasts for one up to several days are of high socioeconomic importance for agriculturally dominated societies in West Africa. In this contribution, we evaluate the performance of operational European Centre for Medium-Range Weather …
Precipitation forecasts for one up to several days are of high socioeconomic importance for agriculturally dominated societies in West Africa, regarding both the occurrence as well as the amount of precipitation. However, disappointingly forecasts …
Despite their high socio-economic importance, forecasts of tropical rainfall on a synoptic timescale are still quite poor. Due to the complex nature of convection, numerical weather prediction (NWP) models largely fail to deliver reliable and …
Statistical postprocessing for ensemble forecasts has undergone many improvements recently. Commonly used methods are Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS), but have pre- dominantly been applied over the …
Previous research has shown the significant impact of the two climate modes El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the interannual variability of Tanzanian rainfall. However, the relationship of these modes to crop yield …